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Barack Obama's foreign policy
巴拉克•奧巴馬的外交政策
The quiet American
沉靜的美國人
Nov 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition
AFP
Is Barack Obama’s diplomacy subtle and strategic, or weak and naive?
The world is about to find out.
奧巴馬的外交政策到底是靈活的戰略，還是羸弱的天真？我們將拭目以待
AT LAST Barack Obama seems to be starting to make up his mind. After months of agonising(苦悶煩惱的), he is apparently close to announcing that he will after all send a decent(像樣的) number of American reinforcements(增援部隊) to Afghanistan. Meanwhile, having barely mentioned climate change since his inauguration(就職), he has now told the world that he is going to the international summit in Copenhagen—and with a provisional promise that the world’s greatest polluter will cut emissions.
終於，奧巴馬似乎要開始下決心了。在經歷了幾個月的痛苦折磨之後，顯然，他將要要宣佈：派遣足夠數量的美國士兵去增援阿富汗。與此同時，針對自上任以來就鮮有提及的氣候變化的問題，他昭告世界：他將赴哥本哈根參加國際峰會，並且，將臨時承諾美國，這個世界上最大的污染國，將會減少其碳排放量。
Bold(顯著的) stuff. But both Afghanistan and Copenhagen can also be cited(引...為證) as evidence of a weakness that runs through his foreign policy. It looks to many as if he has dithered(慌亂), not deliberated(深思熟慮). On Afghanistan, far from being clever, his faint-hearted(懦弱的) attempt to talk round Congress, manage his squabbling(爭吵) officials and twist(盤繞) the arm of Hamid Karzai, the vote-rigging(操縱選舉) Afghan president, has arguably accomplished little except hand the initiative(主動權) to the enemy: his generals have an uphill(費力的) struggle. On climate change, the rush to Copenhagen, with no bill in sight in Congress, has an air of desperation.
勇氣可嘉。但是阿富汗問題和哥本哈根峰會都可以看作是貫穿他外交政策的軟弱性的證據。在許多人看來，他顯得如臨深淵如履薄冰，而非從容不迫。在在阿富汗問題上奧巴馬很多行動都不甚明智：包括怯懦的勸說國會，管理口角不斷的官員，，他對國會的遊說，對座下官員爭執的處理，對操縱選舉的阿富汗總統卡紮伊的牽制都有些差強人意，收效甚微，無非是把主動權交到了敵方手裏：他的將軍們將會陷入一場苦戰。在氣候變化問題上，在國會還沒有打算通過議案的意思之前，匆忙趕赴哥本哈根，明顯有些操之過急了。
This goes to the heart of the debate about Mr Obama’s diplomacy. Which will he be, clever or weak? Does this president have a strategy, backed if necessary by force, to reorder the world? Or is he merely a presidential version of Alden Pyle(Quiet American書中一角), Graham Greene(上書作者)’s idealistic, clever Quiet American who wants to change the world, but underestimates how bad the world is—and ends up causing harm?
這就涉及到了奧巴馬外交政策這個議題的核心。智者和懦夫之間他將何去何從？這位總統有沒有一個必要時可以訴諸武力戰略來重塑世界秩序的戰略？亦或他只是總統版的艾登•派爾（格雷厄姆•格林筆下的理想主義者）---------想要改變世界，卻低估了這個世界是如何的複雜和棘手，並最終以傷害告終的“沉靜的美國人”？
Short-sighters v long-gamers
鼠目寸光抑或另有遠圖？
The doubters argue that, however decent and articulate(善於表達的), Mr Obama is gaining a reputation as someone who can be pushed around. This month, after the president pandered(慫恿) to China by refusing to meet the Dalai Lama, China pushed for more by banning(禁止) questions at his Beijing press conference with Hu Jintao, its president. When Mr Obama demanded that Israel stop all work on its settlements in the occupied territories, Binyamin Netanyahu, its prime minister, defied him and still, staggeringly(難以相信地), won praise(讚揚) from Hillary Clinton.
質疑者們聲稱，不管奧巴馬表面上有多麼正派得體，多麼口若懸河，他給世人留下的印象卻似乎是任人擺佈。本月，奧巴馬為了討好中國，拒絕接見達賴喇嘛，在奧巴馬與中國主席胡錦濤出席的北京記者招待會上，中國方面則進一步施壓，取消了記者提問環節。奧巴馬要求以色列停止在已佔領的土地內建立猶太人定居點，但是以色列的總理，本傑明•納塔尼亞胡卻對此置之不理，更令人瞠目結舌的是，這一舉動竟然贏得了希拉蕊•克林頓的讚揚。
Each time, the doubters say, Mr Obama’s delicate overtures(提議) are met with ambiguity(模稜兩可的話) or contempt(藐視). Since he engaged(忙於) Iran, it has continued to temporise(妥協) and dissimulate(掩飾) over its nuclear programme. When Mr Obama abandoned a missile-defence system in Europe, he appeared to extract a pledge(許諾) from Russia’s president, Dmitry Medvedev, that his country would support sanctions(國際制裁) if Iran is recalcitrant(反抗的)—only for Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, repeatedly to say he sees no need. Although America has pledged $7.5 billion in aid to Pakistan over five years, the army seems reluctant to take on the Taliban(神學士) who drift(漂流) from northern Pakistan into Afghanistan—indeed, the conditions riding on the grant(授予) were spun by the Pakistani security services into an American “insult(侮辱)”. Yes, Mr Karzai eventually buckled in Kabul, but his readiness(準備就緒) to thumb his nose(嗤之以鼻) at the world superpower was humiliating.
懷疑者稱，奧巴馬的每一次的友好表示要麼是得到曲解要麼就是受到輕蔑的對待。自從他介入伊朗核問題以來，該國一直遮遮掩掩，左右逢源。奧巴馬放棄了在歐洲不熟導彈防禦系統，似乎是強迫俄羅斯總統德米特裏•梅德韋傑夫作出了一個承諾：如果伊朗拒不服從，俄羅斯將支持對伊朗的制裁。但是，俄總理弗拉基米爾•普京卻一再聲稱多此一舉。儘管美國已經承諾五年內向巴基斯坦提供75億美元援助，但巴軍方似乎仍不情願向通過其北部邊境進入阿富汗的塔利班採取措施，看看這些附加條件和巴基斯坦安全部隊的行動，這真是美國式的“羞辱”。的確，卡爾紮伊最後還是在喀布爾低了頭，但是他無時無刻不在藐視這個世界強權，這是在太讓人丟臉了。
The “clever” camp retort(反駁) that diplomacy is not about instant gratification(滿足). Mr Obama has pulled off the urgent tasks of starting to withdraw troops from Iraq and resetting America’s dysfunctional(
不正常的) relations with Russia. He has boosted(推動) the G20 as a new global forum. This week Israel announced a partial settlement freeze. With health-care reform under his belt, he will soon be able to turn to world affairs with his status enhanced. Besides, you could hardly accuse Mr Obama of timidity(膽怯). In three speeches in Prague, Cairo and Accra, he set out a new foreign policy that rejects the Manichean(摩尼教) view of his predecessor(前任). He means to negotiate deep cuts in nuclear weapons, make peace between Arabs and Jews, engage(吸引) Iran, heal the climate and establish America as the strongest and most upright pole of a multipolar(多極的) world. Yes, this work lies ahead(在…前面等待著), but how much can you ask in a year of war and recession(衰退).
明智者反駁道，外交政策不是為了些許的眼前利益。奧巴馬成功完成了一系列緊迫的任務：諸如從伊拉克撤軍；並且重建已經失調的美俄關係；將20國集團打造成為新的全球論壇；本周，以色列宣佈停建部分定居點。鑒於醫療保障改革方面取得了一定的經驗，這將增強他的影響並使他騰出身來致力於國際事務。另外，你也不能說奧巴馬怯懦。在布拉格、開羅和阿克拉三地的演講中，他提出了新的外交政策，摒棄了前任總統的摩尼教觀點。他打算就大幅削減核武器展開磋商、在阿拉伯和猶太世界間建立和平、同伊朗談判、改善氣候問題並且把美國打造成為多級世界中最強大的、最正直的一極。這就是事實啊，在戰亂和經濟衰退的境況下，你還能苛求什麼呢？
It is a fair point, but as the months drag on(拖延), the “weak” case has been gaining the upper hand. Mr Obama has yet to show he has the staying power to take on a dangerous, stubborn(難處理的) and
occasionally bad world. Even allowing for Israel’s shift this week, the president has hardly lived up to(遵循) his promise to work for Middle East peace “with all the patience and dedication that the task requires”. With one big exception, he has not yet shown that he can back his oratory(雄辯) with a stick—and that was a tariff(關稅) on Chinese tyres, a weak sop(巴結用的物品) to America’s unions.
這是一個相對公平的觀點，但隨著時間的推移，“羸弱”的言論會占上風。目前為止奧巴馬還沒有展現出他有能力應付這個危險、頑固而又糟糕的世界。儘管本周以色列有所轉變，奧巴馬總統也很難兌現他在中東和平問題的諾言，即“達成這項使命需要最大的耐心和偉大的獻身精神”。但也有一個很大的例外，他仍然用大棒來維護他的諾言：對中國輪胎施加關稅，以討好美國工會。
Calm and conciliatory(調和的) pragmatism(實用主義) is welcome after George Bush’s impetuous(魯莽的) moral certitude(確信), but it also carries risks. Critics on the American right are wrong to carp(鞠躬) at Mr Obama’s bowing(鞠躬) to kings and emperors. Simple courtesy(禮貌) will help restore America’s image, not diminish(被貶低) it. The trouble is that the president often seems kinder to America’s rivals than to its friends. His guest this week, Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, may well have moaned(發牢騷) about Mr Obama’s kid-glove(過於慎重的) handling of China. Allies in eastern Europe, their soldiers dying in Afghanistan, resent being called mere “partners”, Mr Obama’s term for pretty much anyone . The hapless(運氣不好的) Gordon Brown has got precious little thanks.
相對的魯莽的道德標準，冷靜、撫慰的實用主義確是受到了認可，但同時也帶來了風險：美國右派批評家們對奧巴馬對國王和天皇鞠躬吹毛求疵。適度的禮貌有助重塑美國的形象，而非貶損。真正的問題在於，總統總是對美國的對手比對美國的朋友更寬容。本周，他的客人，印度總理曼莫漢•辛格，對於奧巴馬處理中國問題的寬鬆態度而大發牢騷。東歐盟友的戰士們正在阿富汗鏖戰，“合作夥伴”的稱謂讓他們多少有些不自在--------奧巴馬差不多管誰都叫“合作夥伴”。時運不佳的布朗倒是收到些許極為罕見的感謝之語。
And how exactly will Mr Obama’s quiet multilateral vision, in which each nation does its bit for the good of all, work in practice? He is right that American power is circumscribed(限制). But the European Union is not fit to help him police the world. China, India and Russia are not willing.
奧巴馬有著自己關於多變關係的沉靜版遠見：每個國家都為了大局利益而作自己分內的事情，但是這種遠見的可操作性有多少呢？的確，美國的權力正在逐步受到限制。但他沒有意識到非但歐盟並不是他管理世界的戰友，中國、印度、俄羅斯也會和他一路同行的。
“God save us always from the innocent and the good”
“上帝總會善待我們這些無辜者和好人”
That leaves Mr Obama with a burden(負擔) to shoulder on his own. In the coming weeks he could prove the doubters wrong. He could lead the way towards a brave deal on the climate. He could press Iran to negotiate over its nuclear programme before his own end-of-year deadline—or secure Russian backing for sanctions. He could agree to cut nuclear arms with Russia. He could bully(威嚇) the Palestinians and Mr Netanyahu to agree to talk. And he could get Mr Karzai and Pakistan to show that they mean to make Afghanistan governable(可統治的). Even part of that list would set up Mr Obama as a foreign-policy president. But if there is no progress, then Mr Obama will be cast as(扮演角色) starry-eyed(不合實際的) and weak. He himself recognised the danger of that in one of those golden speeches: “Rules must be binding(約束). Violations must be punished. Words must mean something.”
這會讓奧巴馬覺得自己肩上的擔子更重的。在未來的幾周，他也許會證明那些懷疑是杞人憂天。他率先在氣候問題上打開缺口；他會在他總統任期第一年結束之前迫使伊朗就其核問題展開磋商，或者確保俄羅斯支持對於伊朗的制裁；他可以同俄羅斯達成削減核武的協定；他會威逼巴勒斯坦人和納塔尼亞胡同意對話；他還會讓卡爾紮伊和巴基斯坦表現出他們能讓阿富汗地區變得可以管理。上述事件中的一部分如果能實現的話，都可以使得奧巴馬成為所謂的外交總統，但倘若工作沒有進展，奧巴馬就就難免會落下“盲目樂觀和羸弱”的話柄。在篇成功的講演中，他自己也意識到了這一風險：“規則必須遵守；違規必將嚴懲；諾言必須遵守。
[ 本帖最後由 qwers00033269 於 2009-12-3 09:40 編輯 ] |
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